Population continues to grow – only to shrink
The narrative of a constantly growing world population that is inexorably heading towards the limits of the planet’s carrying capacity hovers in the collective consciousness. Popular media often paint a picture of a future in which humanity lives crammed together like sardines in a tin can, plagued by resource scarcity and ecological disasters. But what if I told you that this picture could soon be a thing of the past? In fact, there are serious forecasts predicting that the world’s population will not only stop growing in the course of this century, but could fall dramatically – possibly by as much as half the current numbers.
The facts behind the myth
Despite the apocalyptic predictions of some overpopulation prophets, data and studies by demographers show a different reality. Institutions such as the United Nations and numerous population researchers predict that global population growth will peak in the second half of the 21st century and then decline. This development is caused by falling birth rates, which have already fallen below the replacement rate in many parts of the world, particularly in industrialised nations and increasingly in developing regions.
Technological progress and social change
One factor influencing birth rates is technological progress. Technologies in the areas of health, education and women’s rights have led to people, especially women, gaining more control over their reproductive rights and often opting for smaller families. This decision is also influenced by improved access to education and the better career prospects that come with it.
Interestingly, media and pop culture often reflect or influence these demographic trends. Series such as “Children of Men” or the film “Blade Runner 2049” depict worlds in which humanity is struggling with fertility crises and shrinking populations. These fictional depictions may soon be closer to reality than we can imagine and serve as a cultural reflection of our collective fears and hopes for the future of humanity.
Why do so few people realise this?
The lack of widespread public discussion about the possibility of population decline may be due to the complexity of the issue. The simple but alarming idea of “overpopulation” is easier to communicate than the nuanced reality of demographic transition. In addition, economic and political interests could play a role, as growth is often anchored as a universal goal in our social systems.
And now?
The idea that the world’s population could shrink drastically in the near future raises many questions. How do we deal with the challenges of an ageing population? How do we adapt our economic and social systems? The answers to these questions will not only determine the course of humanity, but also the way we think about our own survival on this planet.
At a time when dystopian science fiction often depicts fears of an overpopulated world, the reality could ironically be one where we face the exact opposite problem. The great irony of human development may be that it is not the explosion but the implosion of population that forces us to reflect.
